From Phil Lawton

Sunset Boys

The clear favorite is Centennial. The Bulldogs—second at State in 2009—are unbeaten against southern Nevada competition this year. Junior Nick Hartle—the defending Sunset champion—and senior Kyle Merritt lead the team. Seniors Bryce Fessler and Dominic Lopez are solid at three-four and the five spot is usually filled by junior Billy Gravley, or Jackson Carter and George Espino, both freshmen.

Shadow Ridge is also likely to advance to state. The Mustangs are led this year by Kyle Wilson, currently ranked number two in Sunset, behind Hartle. Austin Tiner and Justin Graf, both seniors; Ian Cattanich, a junior; and Tyler Pisciotta, a sophomore, round out the Shadow Ridge top five. When Centennial skipped the NW Championship race, Shadow Ridge breezed to an easy win. 

Arbor View, along with Centennial and Shadow Ridge, also has a true striker in Greg Marschik. Number two and three for Arbor View are usually Conor Gallagher and David Jaeger, also seniors. Junior Shelby Decker and sophomore Chase Beausoleil should round out the top five for the Aggies.

Palo Verde and Durango are the two teams which appear to have any chance of upsetting Arbor View and joining Centennial and Shadow Ridge at State. The Panthers are led by senior Tom Johnson and junior Andrew Jacobson, while senior Matt Shelton leads the Trailblazers.

More likely those three will be in hunt for those five individual spots at state. Other strong contenders for individual qualifying spots will be Basabos Bahati, a junior from Clark; Julian Jalani, a junior from Gorman; and three seniors: Shawn Smith, Gorman; Anthony Ponticello, Faith Lutheran; and Sam Meyo, Cimarron-Memorial.

Sunrise Boys.

At the recent Conference Championships, three SE teams dominated: Foothill, Coronado, and Green Valley. It would be a major upset for these teams not to advance to state.

Foothill is led by senior Carl Greene, arguably the number two runner in Sunrise, behind Del Sol’s Colin Smith. Backing up Greene are a solid quartet of underclassmen: junior Kyler Campbell, and three sophomores: Brian Marshall, Arie Dennis, and Raymond Sanchez.

Coronado is led by three seniors: Alex Carrasco, Justin Thornley, and Cameron Neal; and three sophomores: Ryan Gehring, Mark Hickey, Alan Ekanger.

Green Valley is a young team and they lack a true striker, but they appear to be deep enough to capture that third spot in Sunrise. The Gators are led by Doug Harris and Alex Bylina, both juniors. Three sophomores: Jesse Rodgers, Michael Patrino, and Nicholas Rudolf all finished in the top 20 at the Frosh-Soph Championships.

If anyone is to upset Foothill, Coronado, or Green Valley for a ticket to state it will likely be Basic, SECTA, Silverado, or Del Sol. All four teams have strong front runners but appear to lack the team depth to prevail. Instead these four teams will likely produce the five individual runners who will advance to state. Del Sol seniors Colin Smith and Walter Casey, and junior Nick Priego; Silverado senior Dante Carter, and junior Dennis Couglin; Basic juniors Sebastian Stiles and Kaleb Stumbaugh; and SECTA senior Sebastian Hernandez, and sophomore Zach Zimdars. Valley junior Alec McMillan and Eldorado senor Colin Abbott could also contend. 

Sunset Girls

Palo Verde and Arbor View are the odds-on favorites to advance to state. The third spot is most likely up for grabs.

Palo Verde has a formidable one-two punch. Freshman Katie Gorczyca is undefeated in Nevada and has dominated every race against local competition. Kelsi Koch, a senior, is the number one returning runner from the South from the 2009 4A State meet. Koch was second overall, behind Gorczyca, at the NW/SE Conference race. Palo Verde also have a strong supporting cast in seniors Theresa Guerra and Nicole Vandersteldt, sophomore Ashley Koch, and freshman Marissa Suan.

Arbor View is also a lock to make state and try to match or better a runner-up finish at state last fall. Andrea Gonzalez has emerged as the Lady Aggies number one runner this year and is among the top five runners in Sunset. Besides Gonzalez, sophomores Amberly Halstead and Randi Withoft and senior Kourtney Willey give the Aggies a solid one through four. Freshman Zanae Jones was the fifth Arbor View runner and ninth overall at the recent NW division championships.

Shadow Ridge and Centennial would appear to have the best chance of grabbing that third qualifying spot. Shadow Ridge has a true striker in senior Mallory Reese. Senior Kaela Dotson, sophomore Kelsie Harper, and freshman Ciera Clayton also finished Top 15 in the NW division championships. Centennial could edge out Shadow Ridge if their four-five runners come through. Freshman Sydney Badger, junior Savannah Anas, and senior Brianna Roll have run very well all year, but there has been big drop off after that. Jordanna Payne, Miranda Djordjevic, and Alyssa Antos all ran together and finished four-five-six for Centennial at the Canyon Cowboy Cross Country Invitational two weeks ago in California, but there was a two-minute time gap between the third Centennial runner and them.

Clark, winner of the SW Division race, would be one team that could pull an upset. But for that to happen their number one runner, junior Julianna Thornock, needs to improve on her performance at the Conference meet and pull her teammates along with her. Most likely Thornock will be fighting for an individual spot at state, along with four other juniors: Spring Valley’s Danica Puente, Spring Valley, Gorman’s Taylor Stueve, Bonanza’s Emily Taylor, Desert Oasis’ Bianca Vasilica, and the top runners from the “loser” of the battle between Shadow Ridge and Centennial.

Sunrise Girls

As with the boys, Green Valley, Coronado, and Foothill are the clear favorites.

Green Valley should be a lock. They have a terrific front runner in senior Alyssa Rapovy. They are also solid two through five with junior Summer Holloway and three freshman: Lindy Eskin, Stacie Hall, and Kayla Anderson. The Green Valley girls have only missed one trip to state as a team since 1993.

Coronado may be even better than Green Valley. The Lady Cougars upset the Lady Gators at the SE Conference meet, led by senior Erin Smith who finished second behind Rapovy. Kristal Hosaka, also a senior, is Coronado’s number two, and three freshman round out the top five: Sara Dort, Emma Czerwinski, and Lauren Lucas.

Foothill completes the trifecta of strong girl’s team in Sunrise. The Lady Falcons have a solid core led by senior Cheyenne Jones. Add juniors Sage Long and Jessica Mendoza, sophomores Stephanie Stokes and Ryanne Bailey, and freshman Alysa Vanek and this team is a deep and well balanced. 

The top contenders for the five individual qualifying spots at state from Sunrise are sophomore Taylor Coss. SECTA; senior Marisa Denton, Desert Pines; sophomore Gaby Vazquez, Eldorado; junior Erika Oceguera, Basic; freshman Melanie Harris, Basic; senior Sophia Frederickson, Las Vegas, and senior Mariah Millett, SECTA. 

(Phil Lawton)