DyeStatNV NIAA Southern Nevada Regional Preview

The 2016 NIAA Southern Nevada XC Regional Championships will be held on Nevada Day, Friday October 28 at Craig Ranch Park in North Las Vegas.  This park was once an 18 hole golf course and was converted into one of the best parks in Southern Nevada.  The 3 loop, 5k cross country course will consist of mainly grass with a long straight start and a 250m plus straight line finish.

There will be 8 races, 4A Sunrise Boys and Girls, 4A Sunset Boys and Girls, 3A Boys/Girls and 2A/1A Boys/Girls.  Races will begin at 10:00am with the 4A Sunrise Boys.

Here’s our preview with statistics coming from Athletic.net

4A (Top 3 teams and the 5 individuals from non-qualifying teams will make it to the State Championship)

Sunrise Boys – Green Valley has been the class of the Sunrise Boys all season and there’s nothing short of missing the bus that will deter the Gators of repeating as Sunrise Champions. They have a 33 point cushion over Basic and 37 points over Coronado.  Late season injuries may come into play, but the Gators have plenty in the tank.  Basic and Coronado seem like a lock to make it to State as this 2^nd-3^rd place battle will come down to each team’s 5^th runner (doesn’t it always?)

Individual Championship contenders include any of Green Valley’s top 4 (Omar Rubio, Milton Amezcua, Lenny Rubi or Dartanyon Jones.)  If any of these 4 falter, look for Silverado’s Omar Aguilar Espinoza and Basic’s Steven Birch to be in the hunt

The individual State Qualifers should come from this group: Omar Aguilar Espinoza (Silverado); Josh Nyberg and Surafel Feleke (Valley); Brian Coon, Justin Neubeck and Lincoln Morris (Foothill); Eduardo Soto and Ryan Gilbert (Liberty).

Sunrise Girls – This should be good!  Foothill and Green Valley are separated by 3 points, but Foothill had a major confidence builder defeating Green Valley at Division Finals. Green Valley has the better 1-5 team time (1:45.2 to 1:45.5) but The Falcons have a 56 second spread between 1-5, while the Gators are 1:54. Third ranked Coronado and 4^th ranked Basic are separated by 5 points. Remember, only 3 teams to State!

Individually, Basic’s sophomore Raquel Chavez (4^th in 2015) is the only Sunrise girl to crack 20:00 this season.  She’ll be tested by Green Valley’s defending Region Champion Mia Smith and Amy Amezcua; Liberty’s Skyler Free, Coronado’s Claire Rawlins and any of Foothill’s top 4 (Myna Buckley (2^nd in 2015), Makenzie Flynn, Erica Schultz and Erica Williams)

The individual State Qualifers should come from this group: Claire Rawlins and Sabrina Granger (if Coronado finishes 4^th; Raquel Chavez and Hunter Hughes (if Basic finishes 4^th); Liberty’s Skyler Free and Sidney Groom; Valley’s Isabella Davis; and Silverado’s Alexis Reynolds.

Sunset Boys – Another close team battle for 1^st!  Arbor View and Centennial are separated by 5 points to claim the top 2 spots. But wait, the battle of potential 3^rd place teams (5 of them) is separated by 32 points, and last I looked, they don’t run on paper!  After a long season, Desert Oasis and Faith Lutheran are tied for 3^rd with 124 points! Clark is ranked 5^th with 131, Palo Verde is ranked 6^th with 146 and Durango is 7^th with 156.  Faith Lutheran has an impressive 20 second 1-5 spread, but no striker. Desert Oasis’ spread is just 37 seconds, but again, no striker. Palo Verde, Durango and Clark have the potential to place an individual in the top 10.  It will be fun and exciting!

The Individual Champion will rise from this talented group: Ian Jackson (Arbor View-2^nd in 2015); Frankie Bisacky (Durango); Alex Miller Centennial; and Defending Champion Daniel Ziems (Palo Verde).

It’s hard to predict the individual State Qualifiers because of the close team battle for 3^rd. Look for the top team runners for places 4-7 to make it.  It’s going to take a time in the low 17:00s to do it though.

Sunset Girls – The lowest Large School Region/Zone score ever recorded in Southern Nevada was 19 points in 2000 by Green Valley. Centennial has a shot to wipe that off the record books.  The Lady Bulldogs come in ranked #1 in the Sunset and #2 in the State. If all goes according to plan, they should place their scoring 5 in the top 7 and 7 in the top 12! That’s 17 points, 2 less that the ’00 Gators!  Second in the Sunset Rankings is Palo Verde. The Panthers, if all goes well, are a lock for 2nd with a 52 point cushion over 3^rd ranked Shadow Ridge.  The “Ridge” has a 25 point cushion over Arbor View, but count the Aggie’s out.  They pack their 1-5 with a 42 second spread, compared to 45 seconds for Shadow Ridge.  Faith Lutheran has been running well as of late, placing their top 2 in front of the top runners for Shadow Ridge and Arbor View in the NW Division race.  Don’t count them out!

The Individual Champion should come out of the mass of Centennial runners. Number 1 runner in the State, Alexis Gourrier, has been untested in Nevada throughout the season and is odds on favorite to win.  If anything goes awry for Gourrier, look for Palo Verde’s Defending Champion Emma Wahlenmaier to strike. Others with a shot at the title are Centennial’s Defending State Champion Karina Haymore, and Centennial’s Delani Dietrich.

The individual State Qualifers should come from this group:  the top runners from whichever teams finish 4^th & 5th; Sandybell Avila (Clark); Baileigh Sundin and Sarriah Brown (Sierra Vista); Madelyn Doerr (Desert Oasis).

3A (Top 4 teams and the 5 individuals from non-qualifying teams will make it to the State Championship)

Boys – There is a 1 point separation between #1 Pahrump Valley and #2 SECTA.  Pahrump should start their scoring with a 1 (Bryce Odegard), but then, 2 SECTA runners usually place before Pahrump’s second.  Pahrump’s 5^th is 18^th and SECTA’s is 21^st. Pahrump may have the edge with their 6-7 coming in before SECTA’s 5^th.  That will be the key if Pahrump is to win.  Cheyenne looks like a solid third for a trip to the State Championship as does Moapa Valley in 4th

The Individual Champion looks like a solid bet with Pahrump’s Odegard.  He’s the only Southern 3A boy to break 17:00 this season.  Challengers include Boulder City’s Tyler Campbell and Desert Pines’ Jovan Ibarra.

Individual State Qualifiers should include Campbell and Ibarra along with James Fincher (Mojave) and Jarrett McBrayer and Tyreice Poullard (Del Sol), John Krausman and James Embro (Boulder City) and Virgin Valley’s Jordy Saldana

Girls – SECTA Strong! The Roadrunners have a 55 point cushion on #2 Boulder City.  The battle will be for 3^rd and 4^th with Desert Pines (104 points), Pahrump Valley (109 points), and Virgin Valley (110 points). Can’t get much closer!  Desert Pines should place 2 in the top 5 but then fall off a bit to 45^th place for their 5^th, a 4:46 1-5 spread. Virgin Valley has a better 1-5 spread than either of the 3 teams, but won’t start their scoring until after 10^th.  If there’s a 3 headed coin, flip it!

The Individual Champion should come out of a close race between Desert Pines’ Nayeli Perea-Barco and SECTA’s Diamond Morris.  Six seconds separate their season bests for 2016.

Individual State Qualifiers should include the #1 girl from the 5^th place team along with Araceli Gascon and Starr Hawkins (Cheyenne), Ayleen Coronado and Skyler Jiminez (Western), Matilda Thompson and Emma Thompson (Moapa Valley) ad Sunrise Mountain’s Diana Martinez.

2A/1A (Top 3 teams, out of a minimum of 6 full teams and the 5 individuals from non-qualifying teams will make it to the State Championship.  If less than 6 complete scoring teams, 2 teams will qualify with 5 individuals.  The North will get an extra team. There will be Ghost Scoring in this Division, if necessary. Teams must have at least 3 finishers to have a full team score)

Boys – We don’t see much of West Wendover in Southern Nevada, but they are in our Region Championship Meet. That’s a 7 hour drive to Vegas! It’s about 7 hours to Reno, too. Only 3.5 hours to Salt Lake.  West Wendover comes in as the favorite to win. Five boys in the top 17 will be hard to beat.  Lake Mead Christian, The Meadows School and Lincoln County will fight it out for the 2 remaining State births.

The Individual Champion should be Defending Champion Samuel Stewart from White Pine. Stewart has a 30 second PR over the #2 runner Jorge Aguirre from West Wendover. Aguirre was 3^rd last year and may challenge Stewart. Others with a shot are Lake Mead Christian’s Shay Rutledge, Lincoln County’s Cody Dirks and The Meadows’ Tucker Hanson. Smart money though, is on Stewart.

Individual State Qualifiers should come from the top 2 or 3 runners on the 4^th place team along with Adelson’s Noah Stanigar, Laughlin’s Jose Calzada and Cesar Arrellano, and Indian Springs’ Camden Pearson.

Girls – The Meadows School has a 4-Peat in the books and should easily make it 5. In that streak, they have two 15 point perfect scores!  A perfect score isn’t likely, but they should win by a bunch. They have 29 points to play with over the #2 teams.  That’s right…teams!! Lincoln County and Laughlin are tied for the #2 ranking. But here’s the kicker…there may not be 6 full teams scoring!  If that’s the case, only 2 teams will make it to State.  “Let’s Get Ready to Rumble!”  Note: Coral Academy would have made it 6 full teams, but they are not yet eligible for post season competition.

Individually, girls from The Meadows have won 4 straight individual titles and Ellen Hirsberg, already a two-time champ, will be going for #3.  Hirsberg, with a win, will join Foothill’s Leah Leady as a 3x champ. She’s only a junior, so she has a shot to eventually join Green Valley’s Abby Miller as the only 4x champ if she wins this year and next. No pressure!

Whether or not there are 2 or 3 teams to State, there will be 5 individuals qualifying for State. If just 2 teams, then possibly 3-4 of these girls will come out of the 3^rd place team. Also in the mix should be Needles Justyce Adamo and Rosita Magana, and Adelson’s Leemor Aizenberg and Talia Lowe.

DyeStatNV will be there with results and photos published here: http://niaa_southern_regional_xc.runnerspace.com/